Disasters and Elections: Estimating the Net E ect of Damage and Relief in Historical Perspective
نویسندگان
چکیده
Do natural disasters help or hurt politicians’ electoral fortunes? Research on this question has produced conflicting results. Achen and Bartels (2002, 2016) find that voters punish incumbent politicians indiscriminately a er such disasters. Other studies find that voters incorporate the quality of relief e orts by elected o icials. We argue that results in this literature may be driven, in part, by a focus on contemporary cases of disaster and relief. In contrast, we study a case of catastrophic flooding in the American South in 1927, in which disaster aid was broadly and fairly distributed and Herbert Hoover (the 1928 Republican presidential candidate) was personally responsible for overseeing the relief e orts. Despite the distribution of unprecedented levels of disaster aid,we find that voters punishedHoover at the polls: in a ected counties, Hoover’s vote share decreased by more than 10 percentage points. Our results are robust to the use of synthetic control methods and suggest that—even if voters distinguish between lowand high-quality responses—theaggregate e ect of this disaster remainsbroadly negative.Our findingsprovide somesupport for AchenandBartels’ ideaof blind retrospection, but also generate questions about theprecisemechanisms by which damage and relief a ect vote choice.
منابع مشابه
Disasters and Elections: Estimating the Net Effect of Damage and Relief in Historical Perspective
متن کامل
Determining the extent of building destruction after an earthquake using satellite imagery and fuzzy logic (Case study of Sarpol-e-Zahab region)
Background and objective: Earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes occur in urban areas, destroying buildings and injuring people living in them. Urban center buildings are among the features that are exposed to many hazards during an earthquake. One of the first measures taken after an earthquake is relief. Locating damaged buildings can speed up relief efforts....
متن کاملEffect of Relief Maneuvers on Staff Preparedness for Disasters
INTRODUCTION: Investigation of natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes and floods) has a long history due to the lack of knowledge of humans about the severity and strength of these accidents or the time and place of their occurrence. In this regard, it is necessary to develop national plans for the reduction of the vulnerability of people who are exposed to such disasters. Execution of maneuvers ...
متن کاملنقش مدیریت آموزش در تنظیم و ارایه پیام مناسب آموزشی،ترویجی به جامعه در زمینه کاهش خسارات وارده از حوادث غیر مترقبه
Abstract: Learning from best practices in improving the productivity of human societies. One of the main factors that cause great damage is not enough information about natural disasters and man-made and the lack of attention to the importance and role of public security, health and disaster relief is on. People involved in assisting in disaster relief and can help relieve the suffering of peop...
متن کاملElectoral Ethics in Imam Khomeini's thought
Every society has oriented itself towards a governing method concerning the socio-cultural conditions and with the inclusion of different historical-ideological periods and has accepted it as its governmental plan. Iranian society is not an exception to this general rule. Throughout different historical stages, such as the government of Safavid, the Constitution Movement, and despotic g...
متن کامل